For a month that’s historically unpredictable, October has been surprisingly calm. The FTSE 100 has quietly climbed to record highs, the US markets have stayed firm despite all the noise, and investors are wondering whether the long-awaited correction has simply been postponed rather than cancelled.

September, as every seasoned investor knows, has a terrible reputation — statistically one of the weakest months for stocks. October, meanwhile, is famous for some of the biggest market crashes in history: 1987’s Black Monday, the 2008 financial crisis, and the Covid panic of 2020 all hit in or around October. Yet this year, both months behaved themselves. So the question on everyone’s mind is simple: if the correction didn’t come in autumn, does that mean it’s waiting for us under the Christmas tree?